Showing posts with label Decision Making. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Decision Making. Show all posts

5/13/13

3 Steps to Handle a Crisis Like a Fighter Pilot


By compartmentalizing and addressing a problem on a triage basis your business can emerge from disaster unscathed.




When I was born in 1970 my father was a flight surgeon with the U.S. Air Force. One of the lessons that has stayed with me from my father's experience in the Air Force is how fighter pilots are taught to deal with crisis. Why? Because it is a lesson that transcends survival in the air and can be used in every aspect of your life and business. When we are presented with a crisis situation, here are the steps that I always use to work my way through the problem.

1. Don't Panic
The first rule is often the most difficult to learn: never panic. This can take years of practice and often involves shifting or muting personality traits. When we panic our mind races. It becomes cloudy and rational decisions are harder to come by. Consequently, poor decisions, or even worse, no decisions at all, may be made. As such, you must teach yourself that with every challenge there either is, or is not, a solution and that you must calmly go through the following two steps to resolve the crisis.

2. Compartmentalize
Once you have identified what the problem is take time to segment out what could be the possible root causes and the potential solutions. Think broadly about everything that could be linked to the problem and have any causal effect on it. Then compartmentalize each one of those potential targets and begin the progression set forth below.

3. Analyze Progressively
Methodically search for a solution by progressively analyzing the potential compartmentalized issues. In short, be it a mental list you have created or a written list, go through each potential cause testing your hypothesis about each until a solution presents itself.

How does this work in application?
In 1972 one of my father's friends in his fighter wing was flying a mission over Northern Vietnam. During his mission his aircraft was severely damaged by enemy fire. As the wing turned and headed back to base his ability to control his aircraft was diminishing by the minute due to damage to his tail and, to make matters worse, one of his two engines was on fire threatening to ignite his main fuel tank thus ending his mission in a very abrupt and permanent fashion. If he ejected over Northern Vietnam he would be captured and sent to a prison camp, not something that was very appealing at the time.

So what did he do? First, per his training, he didn't panic. He could eject, but he hung on to compartmentalize his issues and progressively analyze his options. His goal was clear: get the aircraft to the demilitarized zone, or DMZ, so that when he ejected he could be recovered by friendlies and not by the Northern Vietnamese.

Second, he compartmentalized. His primary issues were 1) a loss of control of the aircraft by and through damage to the primary flight systems, 2) progressive loss of altitude due to the damage to one of his engines, and 3) the risk of the fire reaching his main fuel tank and the aircraft suffering a final and catastrophic failure prior to his being able to eject.

Third, he progressively analyzed his options and set a course of action. He had enough flight control remaining that he could at least nose the jet towards the DMZ. Then, in addressing the other two issues he powered down and cut fuel to the engine on fire in an effort to starve the flames long enough to buy him enough time to get to the DMZ.

Finally, he calculated his altitude loss rate quickly in his head against the distance to the DMZ and his crippled speed to determine that he could make it provided the jet did not erupt in flames prior to his objective bail out point.

So did it work? Fortunately, yes. He piloted the damaged aircraft, losing altitude all of the way, with almost no ability steer the same, to the DMZ. Moments after he crossed the line he pulled the lever on his seat ejecting him out of the cockpit and into the sky over Vietnam. As his parachute deployed and the shock of hitting the air alleviated he watched his plane burst into flames moments before it disappeared into the dense jungle below. He was picked up by friendlies and returned to base by the end of the day.

So how does this apply in business?
Many years ago I was sitting at the desk of one of my first companies. The lights began to flicker on my side of the office. No big deal I thought until the power to all of our computers began shutting down because of these intermittent power issues. To make matters worse, the flickering eventually turned into long blackout periods randomly occurring without warning. For every minute we were without power we were losing money. Eventually the periods became one long period as the lights went out and did not go back on. What could we do?

First, we didn't panic. We had to keep calm and figure out what was going on with an eye on getting power back as soon as possible so the company could function. Second, we compartmentalized our primary issues: 1) How do we get power to our office as quickly as possible? 2) How do we figure out what the problem actually is? 3) How do we solve it?

Next, we went through our progressive analysis to address the situation. We quickly noted that a neighboring floor, and all of the other floors in the building, had power. So while I went and explained the situation to our downstairs neighbors asking for a little help, another team was dispatched to Home Depot to buy numerous long extension cords. Within the hour we had re-powered our floor with temporary power borrowed by our neighbors by simply running the cords throughout the building.

Next, we needed to address the larger issue of figuring out why we had dropped power.  After consulting with three electricians, the power company, as well as the electrical equipment's manufacturers on the issue, the problem was finally discovered and repaired. It was simply a loose connection at the main breaker for our office in the power distribution room.

But by employing these three simple steps we had the power back on in our office within one hour. The larger fix took two weeks. If we would have panicked and lost focus a two-week inability to conduct business would probably have spelled the end of our company. But by compartmentalizing and addressing each issue on a triage basis our business barely missed a beat.

So the next time you have a crisis in your business just think, what would a fighter pilot do?

http://www.inc.com/matthew-swyers/3-steps-to-handle-a-crisis-like-a-fighter-pilot.html

10/23/12

12 Guidelines for Deciding When to Persist, When to Quit

When you're getting something new going, the difference between success and failure is often a matter of time: how long you give it before you give up. Efforts that begin with high hopes inevitably hit a disappointing sag. It's Kanter's Law: "Everything can look like a failure in the middle."

In the messy middle, unexpected obstacles pop up because the path is uncharted. Fatigue sets in. Team members turn over. Impatient critics attack just when you think you're gaining traction. Tough challenges almost inevitably take longer and cost more than our optimistic predictions.

That's why persistence and perseverance are important for anyone leading a new venture, change project, or turnaround. But the miserable middle offers a choice point: Do you stick with the venture and make mid-course corrections, or do you abandon it? Do you support incumbents making progress even though the job is not yet finished, or do you abandon them for another group's unproven promises?

Persist and pivot, and the effort could go on to success. Pull out in the messy middle, and by definition the effort is a failure. The issue is deciding which direction to take.

Consider this real-time case. Airtime, a video conversation platform, launched in the summer of 2012 by Napster legends Sean Parker and Shawn Fanning with much hype and more than ample funding. After a mere 4 months, Airtime has been pronounced in critical condition by media doctors because it has attracted only a trickle of users. Now Fanning has reportedly departed, and critics are chattering about failure. Famed Facebook advisor Parker claims that it is "ridiculously early" to plan Airtime's funeral. He argues that it takes 6 to 12 months to get things up and running. I suppose that 12 months is considered almost a lifetime in the digital age.

But a year might seem short to other people. Just ask Hewlett-Packard's CEO Meg Whitman, who has already declared that she couldn't accomplish much in a year and needs more time. I hear woes-of-the-middle tales from all kinds of leaders in all stages and sectors; innovators getting a new idea off the ground, real estate developers facing stalled construction, companies approaching foreign markets, and CEOs leading complex turnarounds.

Whether it's a start-up like Airtime, a turnaround, an elected official, or your own pet project, there are 12 key questions that can help you decide whether it should be shut down or helped through the messy middle:
  1. Are the initial reasons for the effort still valid, with no consequential external changes?
  2. Do the needs for which this a solution remain unmet, or are competing solutions still unproven or inadequate?
  3. Would the situation get worse if this effort stopped?
  4. Is it more cost-effective to continue than to pay the costs of restarting?
  5. Is the vision attracting more adherents?
  6. Are leaders still enthusiastic, committed, and focused on the effort?
  7. Are resources available for continuing investment and adjustments?
  8. Is skepticism and resistance declining?
  9. Is the working team motivated to keep going?
  10. Have critical deadlines and key milestones been met?
  11. Are there signs of progress, in that some problems have been solved, new activities are underway, and trends are positive?
  12. Is there a concrete achievement — a successful demonstration, prototype, or proof of concept?
If the answers are mostly Yes, then don't give up. Figure out what redirection is needed, strategize your way over obstacles, reengage the team, answer the critics, and argue for more time and resources. Everything worth doing requires tenacity.

If the answers trend toward No, as seems likely for Airtime, then cut your losses and move on. Persistence doesn't mean being pig-headed.
"You've got to know when to hold them, and know when to fold them," Kenny Rogers sang in a famous song about playing poker. That's good advice for any leader struggling with change. It's a mistake to give up prematurely, because the middle is always messy. But be sure to heed the 12 guidelines to choose between persistence or pulling out.

http://blogs.hbr.org/kanter/2012/10/12-guidelines-for-deciding-whe.html

10/5/12

Why You Can't Do It All

The simple rule for start-up survival is to focus on the 80/20 rule-the 20% of tasks that generate 80% of the benefit.

My first year at business school, I thought my professors were trying to kill me. Each night, I had more reading and homework than could possibly get done in one evening even if I stayed up all night. I quickly realized that one of the key lessons of survival was prioritization--figuring out what portion of the work was most important and what just was not going to get done.

I remember one night, working on a term paper with a group of students. We had worked hard on the paper and we all thought it was in good shape. We had other work to complete that night and were not anxious to pull an all-nighter so we were ready to move on. One of the team members, however, felt it was not "A" material and wanted to keep working on it. I remember thinking even back then that this guy did not "get it."
My life in start-ups has been the same experience as business school. To survive and flourish, you have to quickly figure out what is "important" and what is "noise." You can't do it all...

Both at my former company TripAdvisor as well as my current company Car Gurus, we have a saying: follow the 80/20 rule, technically known as the Pareto principle. The Pareto principle tells us that 20 percent of the inputs account for 80 percent of the results. You have to cut through the noise, figure out what tasks represent the 20 percent with the greatest leverage and focus on those tasks. Find those projects that make a big impact and ignore EVERYTHING else.

Is it difficult to step away from fire drills and turn away from the mounting volume in your inbox? Absolutely. But if you don't, your days--and your team's days--will slip away without having addressed the projects that will really drive your business.

The sooner you figure out how to apply the 80/20 rule and run with it, the better off you'll be.  There are 100 things you can focus on each day, and it's up to you to parse the data, decide what projects or features have the greatest leverage and get the product to market as fast as you can.

Don't forget, you can't do it all....

http://www.inc.com/langley-steinert/why-you-cant-do-it-all.html

10/3/12

How to Make Huge Decisions

The power of a group is great when you need to get things done. When you need to make a huge decision, not so much.
 
Opinions. Feedback. Advice. Guidance. Counsel.

Consensus!

Yuck.

Granted, it's natural to look for input when we need to make decisions. And if asking for advice doesn't come naturally, the business world trains us to actively solicit opinions, bounce ideas off other people, and run our ideas up proverbial flagpoles in order to harness the amazing brain power of the many to make awesomely incredible decisions.

Sometimes that approach works... but sometimes it's the worst approach to take when you need to make a huge decision.

The main power wielded by group thinking is the power of the middle ground. Groups grind away the edges and the sharp corners. After all that input and feedback and devil's advocacy what remains is safe, secure... and similar.

If you want to be different--if you want to achieve "different"--the only opinion that truly matters is yours. Group decisions give you an out. Other people can be at least partly responsible. Other people can be wrong.

When you make the decision, everything rests on you: Your vision, your passion, your motivation, and your sense of responsibility.

So you'll try harder if only to prove others wrong. You'll fight through every obstacle and roadblock, if only to prove yourself right.

You will do everything possible to make it happen.

So when you need to make a huge decision, this is how to get input and opinions--while still making sure you, and only you, make the final decision:

1. Take a "crazy" idea.
Choose something you believe in late at night but in the cold light of day hesitate to try.
Or choose an idea you've been told will never work.

2. Then seek data, not opinions.
Input from other people is useful, but only if you see that input as data points and not opinions.
Opinions carry extra weight, like the weight of credibility (he's really smart, so I'm sure he's right), the weight of guilt (if it turns out he's right, I'll never hear the end of it), or the weight of safety (yeah, there probably is a reason no one has tried this before).

"I think you're crazy to try to open a store in that market," is an opinion. It may be accurate, may not be accurate; it's still just an opinion.

If you value the person's opinion, ask them how he or she arrived at that opinion. Always look for the data behind the conclusion.

Otherwise ignore everything that isn't data--warnings, cautionary tales, and well-intentioned but poorly founded advice--since you already know all those things anyway.

3. Evaluate the data.
Data analysis is easy when opinions and "weight" are stripped away.

Make a pros and cons list. Apply sensitivities. Be objective. Be smart. You know how.

4. Decide how strongly you believe...
Analysis will only take you so far, since critical thinking tends to steer decisions towards conventional wisdom.

An innovative product only looks like a sure thing in hindsight. The emergence of a new industry only seems inevitable after it has emerged.

At some point, someone believed when others didn't.

5. ...then decide if that someone is you.
If you believe when others don't--and a major portion of that belief is based on analysis, not gut feel--then go for it. Start a business. Sell a business. Enter a new market. Take a chance on a new product.

Go for it, knowing you'll go harder and faster and longer because the only person that really matters made the decision.

You.

 http://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/how-to-make-huge-decisions.html

6/5/12

The Making of a CEO: Getting Superior Performance from Ordinary People

We'd all like to have a team of superstars, but that's just wishful thinking. What you need is extraordinary performance from ordinary people.

As leaders, we all want a team of superstars. But by definition, there are more ordinary performers in the world than there are extraordinary, and Murphy’s Law ensures that they always wind up on your team. The result: You’ve got a group of average, normal people that must take on formidable challenges.

How do you get an average team to produce extraordinary results?  It is possible. The key isn’t in getting folks to work harder, although that can help. The key is getting them to work smarter, first by making better decisions. Once the decision-making is improved, it makes more sense for people to work harder. Incremental improvement on good ideas can produce a step change in terms of performance. To improve your decisions:

Educate. Helping your group understand the difference between an average decision and a superior one. When a member of your team makes a decision, show them how it can be improved. Make everyone stretch. Eliminate the propensity of average employees to do what has always been done in the past, using the same tools and approaches as before.

Set expectations. Create a culture that instructs and enlightens individuals to consistently make better decisions. At the beginning, it may feel like you are the only one making any good decisions at all. You need to encourage everyone to buy into the bigger mission and to make better decisions.

Empower. As you begin to see that the team is on the right path, empower the folks who have leadership potential to continually improve upon the plan and keep it on the right course. Impress upon each of them their specific role, and celebrate both individual and team results. Don’t let anyone slip back into their comfort zone of the status quo.

Stay the course. Take a page from Peter Schultz, the CEO of Porsche. He turned his company around in the mid-80s, and wrote a book about it. He is famous for saying that one should “plan democratically and implement like a dictator.”

Achieving superior results will always get you noticed, but doing so with an ordinary team forces you to show your mettle a lot faster.

http://www.inc.com/don-rainey/the-making-of-a-ceo-getting-superior-performance-from-ordinary-people.html

5/8/12

The Six Enemies of Greatness (and Happiness)

The Six Enemies of Greatness (and Happiness)
These six factors can erode the grandest of plans and the noblest of intentions. They can turn visionaries into paper-pushers and wide-eyed dreamers into shivering, weeping balls of regret. Beware!


 1) Availability
We often settle for what’s available, and what’s available isn’t always great. “Because it was there,” is an okay reason to climb a mountain, but not a very good reason to take a job or a free sample at the supermarket.
 2) Ignorance
If we don’t know how to make something great, we simply won’t. If we don’t know that greatness is possible, we won’t bother attempting it. All too often, we literally do not know any better than good enough.
 3) Committees
Nothing destroys a good idea faster than a mandatory consensus. The lowest common denominator is never a high standard.
 4) Comfort
Why pursue greatness when you’ve already got 324 channels and a recliner? Pass the dip and forget about your grand designs.
5) Momentum
If you’ve been doing what you’re doing for years and it’s not-so-great, you are in a rut. Many people refer to these ruts as careers.
6) Passivity
There’s a difference between being agreeable and agreeing to everything. Trust the little internal voice that tells you, “this is a bad idea.”


3/5/12

3 Beliefs That Create Success

To a large extent, your belief system determines your success. See which beliefs to cherish--& which you should avoid.

What you believe about yourself determines your level of success. If you want to be successful, incorporate the following beliefs into your daily way of thinking:


1. “I am confident.” If you believe in yourself, you tend to see problems and challenges as speed bumps rather than roadblocks, and have certainty that you’ll eventually succeed.


2. “I am committed.” If, in your heart of hearts, you are absolutely determined to succeed, you’ll find that motivation emerges naturally from that commitment.


3. “I am in control.” If you view yourself as the captain of your destiny rather than a pawn of fate, you’ll have the motivation to continue moving forward–even when the going gets a bit rough.


How to Create Failure
On the other hand, if you want to be a failure, incorporate these three very different beliefs into your daily way of thinking:


1. “Nobody believes in me.” Some people define themselves based upon how they suspect their boss, their co-workers, their relatives and friends see them. Convinced that people think poorly of them, such people suffer from low self-esteem and lack of confidence. If you had a big project that needed handling: Would you trust someone who didn't even trust himself?


2. "I am probably going to fail.” Some people believe that failure is so unpleasant that it must be avoided at all costs. Because of this, they avoid all situations where failure is a risk. But any meaningful endeavor entails risk–so such people seldom (if ever) accomplish anything significant.


3. “Fate controls destiny, so why try?” Some people believe that their status in life and potential as a human being is determined at birth or by the circumstances of their lives. Believing this allows them to deflect the blame for failures onto things over which they have no control, thereby lessening the pain. But it also gives them an excuse to remain on the sidelines, avoiding real attempts at success.


Changing Your Beliefs
You've probably noticed that these two belief systems are in direct opposition to each other. Most people actually fall somewhere between these two poles.

The trick is to slide your own beliefs towards the pole that creates success, rather than the pole that creates failure.

http://www.inc.com/geoffrey-james/three-beliefs-that-create-success.html

12/19/11

Your Primary Limitation? You're Ignorant

How knowing that you don't know much can help you make smarter decisions.

You probably don't know nearly as much as you think you do. I certainly don't. In the spectrum of knowledge even the most insightful human only sees a sliver of light.

Here's the beginning of a long list of what you—and all entrepreneurs—don't know:
  • What people are feeling in other parts of the world
  • What folks are concerned about elsewhere in your city
  • What is happening outside of your front door
  • What the whole story is behind anything you are told
  • What's happening right behind you
  • What your body is doing right now
  • Why you have your worldview
 The list goes on and on. We really don't know much. To say we know even 1 percent of what's happening would be a gargantuan overstatement.

So how are we able to make decisions?

In our heart-of-hearts we all believe that we make decisions about our personal lives and work based upon the facts—our understanding of the context of the choice. But if you think about it, we typically make decisions based upon only a sliver of what we actually need to know.

"It's a good idea to buy this house because it suits my needs and the value is lower than it was last year."

Well, what happens when you discover your wife is pregnant with twins, the local mayor is thinking about proposing a tax hike next week, your boss is thinking about relocating you to another country, or a flood is on its way?

"I should target kids as customers because they're in need of my product."

Well, what happens when you discover that one of your suppliers put lead in the plastic, grandmas love your product even more than kids, or a competitor you've never heard of is on the verge of launching a slightly better, faster, cheaper version of what you built (and oh yeah…she patented it)?

When you start to think about what you don't know it might seem a bit paralyzing. If you don't know nearly enough to make a decision, how can you continue to run your business?

The answer: You can continue to operate. You can continue to move quickly. But, you have to do so knowing your primary limitation: You're ignorant. You don't know much of anything.

So what does knowing that you don't know much tell you? A few things:
  1. You need to listen…a lot.
  2. You're going to get it wrong.
  3. You should be ready to change directions when you do get it wrong.
  4. You need to be ready to forgive yourself for screwing up.
 From a business perspective, there's only one comforting thing in all of this: Nobody else knows anything either.

 http://www.inc.com/mark-peter-davis/your-primary-limitation-youre-ignorant.html